Hello Reader,

The past two weeks have brought an avalanche of headlines around geopolitical developments that have likely stirred dismay or concern in some of you. What might all this mean for the technology landscape?

And amid the noise, a quieter voice may be whispering a more personal fear - that the ripple effects of these shifts could slowly percolate into our own roles, threatening job security and casting uncertainty over our career paths.

What the tariffs mean

I don't usually write about politics or even global affairs. But to properly understand the implications for technology, we first need to unpack what this blitzkrieg of tariffs really means. Establishing that context is essential to fully grasp the situation.

The bottom-line could be broadly summed up as this: the US wants to reshore manufacturing, especially in high-value sectors like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and advanced technologies. It's aiming to reshape the international economic order in its favour - and it wants to actively counter China's growing economic influence.

And perhaps most striking of all, any economic pain, whether felt at home or abroad, is viewed as a worthwhile price to pay in the pursuit of strategic dominance and long-term leverage.

This effort to blunt China’s influence also sheds light on why Beijing’s attempts to reopen channels of communication with Washington earlier this year made little headway, and why the chances of a comprehensive deal emerging anytime soon remain slim.

PS: President Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro, wrote the book "Death by China" (Amazon). Read it and you will quickly get what he thinks of China.

The new world of tech

So what can we expect next? I expect a different world of tech to emerge as the US seeks to decouple itself from China.

We have long benefited from distributed manufacturing and economy of scale in manufacturing. For instance, discrete components are sourced globally based on availability, suitability and price.

In many cases, local ecosystems have also sprung up to further bring down prices. This is seen in Taiwan, which has a thriving semiconductor ecosystem, and Guangdong province in China, which has multiple concentrated manufacturing ecosystems.

Some of these advantages will go away as supply chains are recrafted around the new reality of protectionism. It is inevitable that prices will go up somewhat as costs increase.

Of course, every big shift brings its winners too. But that's a story for another day.

What are your thoughts on this? Hit "reply" and let me know.

Regards,
Paul Mah.

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